Outlook for 2024 (published on 16 February, 2024)

Growth: F-Secure estimates that revenue for 2024 will be in the range of EUR 142–152 million.

Profitability: The group’s adjusted EBITA is expected to be in the range of EUR 48–54 million.

Background for the outlook:

  • F-Secure expects the consumer cyber security market to grow mid-single digit CAGR between 2024-2026*. The growth may be moderated due to uncertainties we see around consumer sentiment in certain markets resulting also Service Providers, especially Communication Service Providers being cautious in their investment priorities.
  • Biggest organic growth driver is Total and Total conversion within the partner channel; within Direct Business focus will be on retention, and marketing investments for paid customer acquisition will be lower than previously.
  • F-Secure continues investing (both OPEX and CAPEX) in Embedded Security capabilities including Tier 1 capabilities and - relationships, which are expected to boost growth in medium term.
  • Lookout consumer BU is now included for the full year, compared to June to December (7 months) in 2023.
  • Lookout consumer BU post-acquisition related deferred revenue is fair valued according to IFRS reporting and will be lower compared to revenue recognised by Lookout consumer BU for those advance payments. The negative revenue impact included in the outlook is estimated to be approximately EUR 1.5 million in 2024, and negative EBITA-level impact in the outlook approximately EUR 0.5 million, respectively.

(*Industry analyst views such as Gartner and IDC, and F-Secure management estimates.